The debate win and assassination attempt are redefining the Presidential race
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been in a solid position to win in November for a while. After winning a debate and surviving a horrifying assassination attempt, his odds of winning could potentially skyrocket.
A second match-up between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, who beat him in 2020, was a strong possibility as far back as two years ago. Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee several months ago with relative ease. Biden’s path was even smoother.
Since last year, the majority of opinion polls have had Trump in front of Biden. What makes this interesting is that Trump has never won the popular vote while running for the presidency. He lost to Hillary Clinton by 48.2 to 46.1 percent in 2016 but won the Electoral College by 304 to 227. He also lost the popular vote to Biden by 51.3 to 46.8 percent in 2020 and the Electoral College by 306 to 232.
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The margin between Trump and Biden is 1.9 percent as of July 15, which is quite close. When you add in environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a former Democrat running as a high-profile Independent, Trump’s aggregate lead goes up slightly to 2.35 percent. That number climbs to 3.25 percent when you add in two additional candidates, Prof. Cornel West (Independent) and Jill Stein (Green Party).
If Trump beats Biden in the electoral college and popular vote in November, it would be considered a monumental achievement.
What about the Electoral College? It depends on who you read, ask and listen to.
The 2024 Real Clear Polling Electoral College Map, part of Real Clear Politics, had Trump leading Biden 219 to 198, with 121 in a toss-up position as of this writing. Nate Silver’s 538 forecast model showed Biden winning 51 times out of 100 in election simulations, Trump winning 48 times, and four scenarios with no winner declared. The Hill’s model suggested that Trump led Biden 235 to 226 but had a 55 percent chance of winning. www.270toWin.com’s consensus had 251 for Trump/Republicans and 226 for Biden/Democrats.
When you put it all together, Donald Trump is favoured to win the Electoral College – not by a huge margin, but a comfortable one.
Things have started to occur in recent weeks that may lead to a bigger Trump victory.
Biden’s appalling performance in the first presidential debate on June 28 caught many people’s eyes. He stumbled badly in his responses, mumbled a fair bit, often seemed incoherent and unfocused, and lost his train of thought on various occasions. Politico’s Jeff Greenfield described it as the “worst performance of any general election presidential candidate in any debate in modern American history.”
It goes without saying that Trump easily won the debate. His performance wasn’t perfect, but it was far superior to the low bar set by Biden. Although it didn’t move the needle strongly in Trump’s favour – an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on July 11 suggested there was almost no change – overall confidence in a second presidential term for Biden took a hefty dip.
Then came the attempted assassination.
At a July 13 campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was shot in the upper right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks. The 20-year-old used an AR-15-style rifle to fire six to eight rounds at the former President and the crowd from his perch at a building relatively close to the rally. One man took a bullet while shielding his wife and two daughters, and two others were critically injured during this assassination attempt. Crooks was shot and killed by a Secret Service sniper. His motives are currently unknown.
Donald Trump was incredibly lucky to have survived this attempt on his life. Had the bullet shifted a few millimetres, it could have been much worse.
What happened after the shooting was even more remarkable. As the Secret Service was about to take Trump – his ear and cheek splattered with blood – off the stage, he stopped them, turned to the crowd, pumped his fist in the air and mouthed, “Fight! Fight! Fight!”
Award-winning photojournalist Evan Vucci captured several images of that moment. Each one told a powerful story. Trump looked like a strong leader in control of a terrible situation where he could have easily lost control. His extensive media training and decades of being in the public eye also worked heavily to his advantage. Whether he was hurt or slightly dazed after the bullet grazed his ear, he instinctively knew what he had to do. He faced his supporters and sent a clear message that nothing and no one would stop him from his mission to make America great again.
This fateful moment and Trump’s stunning reaction could potentially transform the presidential election he was already leading.
Perceptions of Trump’s leadership and public image, which have fluctuated between strength and shaky, could become consistently more positive. Court cases and legal issues involving Trump, which haven’t had nearly the impact his rivals had hoped for, might lose relevance. Independents, undecided voters, disgruntled Republicans, and even those in the Never Trump movement could experience a change of heart.
If some or all of these things happen, Donald Trump’s increasingly likely road back to the White House could be paved with yellow bricks.
Michael Taube, a Troy Media syndicated columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics.
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